Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Consensus 12% across 3 venues (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 12%, PredictIt 25%). The real-money venues are 13.5 pts apart. Updated every few minutes.
Prices by venue
| Venue | Probability | Buy YES | Buy NO | Real money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) | 11.5% | 12.0¢ | 89.0¢ | Yes |
| Kalshi Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) | 11.5% | 12.0¢ | 89.0¢ | Yes |
| PredictIt Who will win the next French presidential election? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) | 25.0% | 24.0¢ | 94.0¢ | Yes |
Buy YES and buy NO are the prices of one contract that pays 1 if the market settles that way. Venues word their rules differently, so read each market's rules before comparing.
Last 7 days
Hourly buckets, last price in each. The shaded band is the gap between the highest and lowest real-money price.
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